Without AI, the US Economy Would Be Shrinking
The American economy owes much of its resilience in 2025 to the artificial intelligence boom. Without it, analysts say, the United States might already be in recession. According to J.P. Morgan, corporate spending on AI added roughly 1.1 percentage points to GDP growth in the first half of the year — surpassing the contribution of consumer demand.
AI as the engine of economic survival
Artificial intelligence has become not just a technological frontier, but the lifeline of the US economy. Capital expenditures on AI — from data centers to chip manufacturing and enterprise automation — have turned into the main source of growth for American GDP.
Harvard economist Jason Furman estimates that AI-related investments accounted for 92% of the total GDP increase in the first half of 2025. “If we strip away the AI component,” he noted, “the US economy would be stagnant or even contracting.” Such dependence highlights both the transformative power of AI and the fragility of the current growth model.
Corporate optimism and economic imbalance
Companies across sectors — from cloud providers to semiconductor giants — have poured record amounts into infrastructure for AI training and deployment. Tech investment now accounts for nearly a quarter of all capital spending in the US, reflecting corporate belief that AI is the next industrial revolution.
Yet economists warn that this enthusiasm may mask structural weaknesses. Consumer spending, traditionally the backbone of the American economy, has slowed under high interest rates and rising debt levels. Meanwhile, manufacturing and real estate sectors show signs of fatigue. In this environment, AI acts less like a bonus and more like a critical support beam holding the economy together.
The risks of one-tech dependency
Ruchir Sharma, chairman of Rockefeller International, cautions that the US may be “putting all its chips on one table.” If the AI sector fails to deliver the expected productivity boom, the consequences could ripple across markets and employment.
“This is a classic case of technological concentration,” Sharma said. “We’ve seen similar patterns before — from dot-coms to housing. The difference now is scale: AI affects everything, from energy demand to capital allocation.” Analysts fear that a slowdown in AI-related returns could expose just how narrowly balanced the economy has become.
The illusion of growth and the real economy
While Wall Street celebrates record valuations in Nvidia, Microsoft, and other AI-driven giants, the benefits for average Americans remain modest. Productivity gains have yet to translate into higher wages or broader job creation.
At the same time, AI investments are fueling a massive surge in energy consumption and straining supply chains for advanced chips. Economists describe this as a “capital-intensive mirage”: strong headline growth that conceals stagnation in non-tech sectors. The result — a two-speed economy driven by data, but disconnected from everyday life.
A precarious balance
For now, AI keeps the US economy above water — but at a cost. The more dependent it becomes on a single technological engine, the greater the systemic risk if that engine stalls.
As governments and investors pour billions into artificial intelligence, one question looms large: what happens when the hype cycle ends? If the AI wave crests before the real economy catches up, America may face a painful adjustment — one where innovation alone can no longer compensate for structural weakness.
Conclusion
Artificial intelligence has saved the US from recession in 2025, but it also reveals the limits of growth driven by a single technology. While AI promises efficiency and innovation, its dominance exposes deeper economic vulnerabilities.
As the data centers hum and capital flows continue, the United States stands at a crossroads — between sustainable transformation and dependence on the very intelligence it created.
Editorial Team — CoinBotLab