QCP Capital: Rising Fed Rate-Cut Odds Improve Bitcoin’s Recovery Chances
Trading firm QCP Capital believes the macro backdrop is finally beginning to shift in bitcoin’s favor, as markets sharply increase the odds of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December. The firm’s analysts point to early signs of stabilization in BTC after a string of “dovish” comments from Fed officials, even as price action remains volatile and technically fragile.According to the latest QCP Capital report, remarks from New York Fed President John Williams and other central bank officials on 21 November pushed the implied probability of a December rate cut from roughly 30–40% to around 75%. For an asset as sensitive to liquidity conditions as bitcoin, the potential pivot in monetary policy could mark an important turning point after weeks of heavy selling pressure and broken support levels.
Macro conditions start to tilt back toward risk assets
QCP Capital argues that bitcoin’s recent behavior fits a familiar pattern: during periods of tight monetary policy and high rates, speculative and liquidity-dependent assets tend to suffer. As soon as markets begin to price in easing, the narrative shifts and traders start looking for opportunities to rebuild positions. Bitcoin, which has dropped more than 30% in recent weeks and sliced through key support zones, is no exception.The firm stresses that the shift in expectations does not guarantee an immediate trend reversal. However, a higher probability of lower rates typically means easier financial conditions, more risk appetite and renewed interest in assets that benefit from abundant liquidity — a category where bitcoin historically belongs.
Derivatives send mixed signals after a sharp drawdown
Despite the improving macro narrative, the derivatives market paints a more nuanced picture. QCP Capital notes that technical signals remain mixed: some indicators hint at short covering and a potential bottoming process, while others show lingering caution among traders.Implied volatility, options skew and futures positioning suggest that participants are reluctant to aggressively price in a sustained rally just yet. The recent breakdown below major support levels has left a psychological mark, and many traders remain focused on managing risk rather than chasing upside. In QCP’s view, this hesitation is typical after a deep correction and could set the stage for a more durable recovery if selling pressure continues to fade.
Thanksgiving week: a key test for the rebound
QCP Capital identifies the week of Thanksgiving as a critical test for bitcoin. Historically, holiday periods can produce sharp moves on thinner liquidity, and the firm warns that price spikes during such periods often turn out to be “false” rallies. Any bounce during the holiday break will need confirmation once full market participation returns.Analysts plan to watch closely how BTC behaves as U.S. markets reopen after the holiday. The key question is whether the pressure from sellers continues to dominate, or whether improved macro expectations and fresh inflows start to absorb supply and lift prices in a more sustainable way.
ETF flows: from record outflows to signs of stabilization
Another element in QCP Capital’s outlook is the behavior of bitcoin ETF flows. After a period of record outflows, 21 November brought a noticeable return of capital into spot bitcoin ETFs. While a single day of inflows is not enough to confirm a full reversal, the firm sees it as an early sign that institutional demand may be stabilizing in response to changing rate expectations.If inflows resume and persist, they could help validate the idea that the recent selloff was more of a macro-driven shakeout than the start of a prolonged bearish phase. For now, QCP Capital remains cautious but sees reasons to believe that the probability of a renewed bitcoin uptrend is rising together with the odds of a Fed rate cut.
Editorial Team — CoinBotLab