QCP Capital: Bitcoin Faces Pressure from Strong Dollar and ETF Outflows
Bitcoin briefly tested the critical $100 000 level this week as macroeconomic forces and capital outflows from spot ETFs weighed heavily on global risk assets, according to a new report from trading firm QCP Capital.
Dollar strength and fading risk appetite
QCP Capital analysts note that the recent rebound in the US dollar index (DXY) has become the dominant headwind for Bitcoin and other digital assets. The renewed strength of the greenback, supported by resilient economic data and cautious rhetoric from the Federal Reserve, has drained liquidity from risk markets worldwide.
“Bitcoin’s weakness this week is closely tied to macro tightening,” the firm wrote. “The stronger dollar and hawkish tone from the Fed continue to push investors away from speculative assets.”
ETF outflows reverse earlier momentum
The report highlights four consecutive trading sessions of capital outflows totaling around $1.3 billion from US spot Bitcoin ETFs — reversing one of 2025’s strongest bullish drivers. QCP Capital describes the shift as “a short-term headwind replacing last quarter’s tailwind,” as institutional investors reduce exposure amid heightened volatility.
While inflows into Solana and Ethereum funds remain modestly positive, Bitcoin ETFs have borne the brunt of liquidation pressure since mid-October.
Federal Reserve uncertainty adds to volatility
After the Fed’s 0.25 % rate cut in October, policymakers adopted a more cautious tone, delaying expectations for a further cut in December. Market pricing now implies a 60–65 % chance of additional easing, but the longer the communication blackout continues, the more comfortable the Fed appears keeping credit conditions tight.
QCP Capital warns that “a prolonged pause scenario” would likely sustain the dollar’s momentum and suppress speculative demand in crypto markets, particularly if risk appetite fails to rebound in equities and commodities.
Market technicals and sentiment
Technically, Bitcoin remains within a wide consolidation range between $98 000 and $108 000, with sentiment indicators flashing extreme caution. Funding rates on derivatives exchanges have turned negative, reflecting growing skepticism among leveraged traders.
Analysts also point to liquidity stress around the $100 000 support zone — a psychological threshold that, if broken decisively, could trigger additional algorithmic selling.
Outlook: temporary pressure or macro reset?
Despite the near-term turbulence, QCP Capital maintains that Bitcoin’s long-term structure remains intact. The firm expects renewed institutional demand once macro clarity returns and the Fed’s policy trajectory stabilizes.
Until then, crypto markets are likely to mirror global FX and bond volatility — staying reactive to every signal from the US central bank. “The next major move in Bitcoin will not come from on-chain data,” QCP Capital concludes, “but from macroeconomic data releases and policy guidance out of Washington.”
Editorial Team — CoinBotLab