QCP Capital: Bitcoin Faces Pressure as Long-Term Holders Take Profits
Singapore-based trading firm QCP Capital has released a new report pointing to profit-taking by long-term Bitcoin holders as the main driver behind the cryptocurrency’s recent decline. Despite strong fundamentals, BTC’s short-term momentum continues to face selling pressure from early investors moving funds to exchanges.
BTC slips amid long-term holder activity
Bitcoin began November with a notable drop, sliding from $110,000 to $107,000 during the Asian trading session. Blockchain data indicates that long-term holders (LTHs) have transferred significant amounts of Bitcoin to centralized exchanges, particularly Kraken.
This behavior reflects a broader trend that started in October, when BTC posted its first negative month since 2018. Analysts note that the selling activity primarily originates from addresses dormant for more than one year — a segment historically associated with major market cycles and tops.
The mechanics behind the profit realization
According to QCP Capital’s report, long-term holders often use market strength to rebalance portfolios or secure profits after extended accumulation phases. The company’s on-chain models estimate that roughly 405,000 BTC — worth over $43 billion — has been redistributed from long-term wallets over the past month.
Despite this wave of selling, Bitcoin has managed to hold above the psychological $100,000 level, which QCP analysts describe as a sign of underlying market resilience. “The fact that spot markets absorbed such a volume without structural breakdown suggests deep liquidity and sustained institutional demand,” the report states.
Institutional absorption and market sentiment
While short-term sentiment remains cautious, the market’s ability to absorb high-volume profit-taking has impressed investors. Institutional desks in the US and Asia continue to buy dips, focusing on the $95,000–$105,000 support range as an accumulation zone.
Derivatives data from Deribit shows a notable increase in open interest for long-term call options, reflecting expectations of a rebound once the redistribution phase concludes. “The current phase resembles a healthy consolidation, not capitulation,” one QCP trader commented.
Context: the first “red October” since 2018
October 2025 marked Bitcoin’s first monthly decline in seven years, with prices falling by 3.7%. Analysts attributed the weakness to both macro uncertainty and profit realization following the record-breaking rally above $120,000 earlier this year.
Long-term holders, who accumulated BTC at much lower prices, appear to be using the strength of 2025’s rally to take profits before potential macro volatility linked to US monetary policy decisions later this quarter.
Outlook: accumulation may resume soon
QCP Capital expects the redistribution cycle to conclude within the coming weeks. Historically, such phases precede renewed upward momentum as selling pressure subsides and newly acquired coins move into stronger hands.
“Once long-term holders complete their profit realization, the market typically enters a new accumulation stage led by institutional buyers,” QCP noted. However, analysts warn that price recovery will depend on macro factors such as US Treasury yields and risk sentiment in global markets.
Conclusion
Bitcoin’s short-term correction reflects a healthy rotation within the market rather than structural weakness. Long-term holders taking profits after a multi-month rally underscores the asset’s maturity — and its growing integration into institutional investment cycles.
If history repeats, this phase of distribution could set the stage for Bitcoin’s next major leg upward once the dust settles and liquidity stabilizes.
Editorial Team — CoinBotLab