One in four Bitcoin now sits above the current market price
A new Glassnode report reveals that more than 25% of all Bitcoin was acquired at prices higher than the current market level. The data points to growing structural risks, as a significant portion of holders now sit on unrealized losses, intensifying sensitivity to further downward pressure.Key recovery range lies between $96K and $106K
Analysts at Glassnode highlight that Bitcoin must reclaim the $96,000–$106,000 range to restore confidence among long-term holders. This zone represents a dense cluster of cost-basis levels accumulated during the late stages of the previous bull cycle. Without regaining these thresholds, market sentiment may remain fragile, and supply distribution could fuel additional volatility.The elevated share of coins held above the market price suggests increasing vulnerability to capitulation if downward momentum accelerates. Historically, such supply imbalances have preceded extended consolidation phases or sharp volatility spikes as investors reassess long-term positioning.
ETF flows turn negative amid declining demand
The report notes weakening demand across cryptocurrency markets, with Bitcoin ETFs experiencing sustained outflows. Since October 13, more than $4 billion has exited ETF products, reflecting a retreat in institutional participation. Analysts interpret these outflows as a cautious repositioning rather than outright market abandonment, but the scale of withdrawals adds pressure to an already strained environment.ETF demand has played a crucial role in stabilizing market structure throughout the year. A reversal in flows, combined with elevated cost-basis stress, creates conditions in which even moderate sell pressure can lead to outsized market reactions.
What this means for Bitcoin’s next market phase
Glassnode’s findings suggest that Bitcoin may be entering a period defined by reduced risk appetite and heightened sensitivity to macroeconomic developments. Until the network reclaims the identified recovery levels, long-term holders may remain hesitant to increase exposure, while institutions may prefer defensive positioning.Whether the market can absorb continued ETF outflows and elevated underwater supply will determine the strength of Bitcoin’s next trend. For now, the data points to caution: a quarter of the supply sits at a loss, demand is softening and recovery requires a decisive reclaim of higher price bands.
Editorial Team - CoinBotLab
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