CME Group Steps Into the Event Prediction Market With FanDuel’s New Platform
The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME Group) is preparing to enter the fast-growing market for event prediction contracts. In partnership with FanDuel, the companies will launch a new application — FanDuel Predicts — in December, expanding access to prediction markets across U.S. states where online sports betting is currently prohibited.
A New Type of Market Access for Restricted States
FanDuel Predicts will allow users to trade contracts based on real-world outcomes. While sports betting remains banned in several states, prediction markets are governed by a different regulatory framework. This enables the platform to legally offer outcome-based contracts tied to sports, economics, and digital-asset indicators.
The platform will feature markets on crypto prices, energy commodities such as oil and gas, equities, macroeconomic announcements, and — uniquely — a range of sports events without falling under sports wagering laws. CME’s involvement signals a strong institutional move toward legitimizing prediction markets in the United States.
A Challenge to Kalshi and Polymarket
Today, the U.S. prediction-market landscape is dominated by two players: Kalshi and Polymarket. Kalshi currently holds the regulatory advantage as the only CFTC-regulated prediction exchange operating legally nationwide. Its compliant structure helped it secure the majority of domestic trading volume.
Polymarket, meanwhile, carved out significant global influence with its crypto-native design but restricted U.S. participation after regulatory pressure. According to industry sources, Polymarket is preparing for a renewed U.S. relaunch — potentially putting it in direct competition with both Kalshi and the new CME-FanDuel venture.
Why CME’s Entry Matters
The participation of CME Group — one of the world’s largest derivatives markets — brings mainstream legitimacy to prediction markets. CME’s infrastructure already supports trillions in annual trading volume for futures across commodities, indices, interest rates, and digital assets. Its experience may set higher operational and compliance standards for event contracts than currently exist in the Web3-oriented sector.
For FanDuel, the platform represents an expansion beyond traditional sports wagering. By separating prediction contracts from gambling classifications, the company can enter markets previously closed to its core business model.
A New Frontier for Crypto-Linked Predictions
One of the standout features of FanDuel Predicts is its inclusion of crypto-price outcome markets. Users will be able to trade on short-term forecasts for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and potentially other assets, leveraging CME’s existing crypto data and expertise in regulated derivatives.
Analysts expect this blend of traditional commodities and digital-asset metrics to attract both retail traders and data-driven speculators who seek alternatives to conventional options or futures instruments.
Conclusion
The upcoming launch of FanDuel Predicts marks a significant shift in the U.S. event-prediction landscape. With CME Group’s backing, the platform could reshape an industry currently dominated by Kalshi and eyed by a resurging Polymarket. By offering sports, crypto, and commodity-linked contracts in non-betting states, the new service positions itself at the intersection of fintech, forecasting, and decentralized-market innovation.
Editorial Team — CoinBotLab