Bitwise CIO Predicts 2026 Will Mark the Next Major Crypto Bull Market
Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise, believes the lack of a dramatic crypto rally in late 2025 is actually a positive sign. According to him, the quieter year-end sets the stage for a significantly stronger upward cycle in 2026 — one he expects to become a full-scale bull market for digital assets.
Why a Slow 2025 Boosts Bullish Potential for 2026
Speaking at The Bridge conference in New York, Hougan explained his reasoning through the lens of Bitcoin’s and the broader market’s four-year cyclical structure. Historically, crypto has shown a pattern of expansion following the halving year, with momentum peaking late in the second year of the cycle before sliding into a downturn.
If 2025 had ended with explosive growth, Hougan argues, that would have aligned the market perfectly with this traditional pattern. The likely outcome: a painful correction beginning in early 2026, repeating the trajectories seen in 2018 and 2022.
Instead, the muted performance has shifted expectations — and in his view, created room for much stronger upside next year.
Hougan: “I’m Even More Confident in 2026”
When asked whether the slower-than-expected close of 2025 changed his bullish stance, Hougan responded that it had the opposite effect. The absence of a late-year blow-off top reduces the risk of an immediate cyclical downturn and extends the window for sustained growth into 2026.
In Hougan’s assessment, the market is positioned for a healthier expansion phase, with fundamentals improving, institutional involvement rising, and regulatory clarity stabilizing in key jurisdictions.
A Cycle Defined by Maturity and Market Structure
Hougan noted that the structure of the crypto market in 2026 will differ significantly from earlier cycles. Spot ETFs, increased derivatives liquidity, and deeper institutional participation are likely to play a central role in shaping the next bull market. These factors, he argues, could amplify upward movements or prolong the cycle beyond historical averages.
He also highlighted macroeconomic considerations: cooling inflation, renewed risk appetite, and stronger capital inflows into digital-asset products. Combined with a less overheated 2025, these elements provide what he describes as “an unusually clean setup” for a cyclical expansion.
What Could Drive the 2026 Bull Market
According to Hougan, several catalysts may support and accelerate growth in 2026:
- broader adoption of spot crypto ETFs;
- renewed institutional interest amid clearer regulation;
- network and protocol upgrades across major blockchains;
- increased user activity from emerging Web3 applications;
- macro conditions more favorable to risk-on assets.
In combination, these forces could produce a cycle with more sustainable expansion and fewer violent reversals than previous post-halving years.
Conclusion
With 2025 ending on a quieter note, Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan believes the market has avoided the biggest risk to the cycle — an early speculative peak. Instead, he argues, the conditions now favor a robust 2026, potentially one of the strongest bull-market years the crypto sector has seen. Whether the cycle follows historical patterns or evolves into something new, institutional investors will be watching closely.
Editorial Team — CoinBotLab